DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/15 11:31
All Grains Lower at Midday
Row crops are the down side leader at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are weaker today with the Dow down 90. The
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 10 points lower. Energies
are mixed with crude down $0.15. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are
mixed with gold up $1.00.
Corn trade is flat with trade seeing choppy two-sided trade overnight up to
midday. The South American recent weather pattern remains intact with a mix of
excessive rain and pockets of dryness with some potential to improve. Ethanol
profitability will remain poor with futures flat this morning. The government
partial shutdown is expected to continue to limit news. Trade talks with China
has raised the specter of potential fresh corn exports with good progress
reported to have been made with a pause in negotiations for now with Chinese
delegations expected in DC at the end of the month. The weekly export
inspections were good at 1.013 million metric tons. On the March chart support
is at the $3.77 1/2 100-day with the lower Bollinger band at $3.72 below that,
and the 10,20, and 50-day moving averages clustered around $3.80 as resistance.
Soybean trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade fading back to
support to open the week with concern about Chinese demand offsetting weather
for the moment. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 lower, and oil was flat to 10 points
lower. South America weather items remain in the recent weather pattern with
harvest going early amid heat and pockets of dryness in Brazil with generally
disappointing yields so far, and excessive rain potential in Argentina with
potential improvement in the extended forecast. Chinese trade data continues to
disappoint, raising concerns about demand coming forward. Forecasts are being
monitored closely. The weekly export inspections were better at 1.085 million
metric tons. March chart support is at the 50-day at $9.05 which we are testing
at midday then the lower Bollinger band at $8.83 with resistance at the $9.29
200-day then the upper Bollinger band at $9.36.
Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents lower at midday with choppy trade ongoing
with action struggling to pick a direction. The dollar remains near three-month
lows, which should add support with more sideways trade building now. Southern
Hemisphere harvest will continue in the near term. North American winter wheat
should see a cool down this week, with snow cover expected in front of the cold
snap. Russia domestic prices will be watched slowly. The weekly export
inspections were good at 545,804 metric ton range. On the March KC chart
support is the 10-day at $5.00, then the $4.87 1/2 lower Bollinger Band.
Resistance is at the 50-day at $5.05 3/4 which we couldn't hold above today
then the upper Bollinger band at $5.23.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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