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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/05 11:02

   Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday

   Corn futures are 27 to 28 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
56 to 67 cents lower; wheat futures are 24 to 35 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 27 to 28 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
56 to 67 cents lower; wheat futures are 24 to 35 cents lower. The U.S. stock 
market is weaker with the DOW down 675 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 160 
points higher. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are sharply weaker 
with crude down 9.00. Livestock trade is mostly lower with strength in front 
month hogs. Precious metals are weaker with gold $36.00 lower.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 27 to 28 cents lower with weekend rains sparking early 
weakness. Negative outside markets accelerated selling during the day session 
with major weather threats limited short term. As we push into pollination 
season, rains look to be better for center of the Corn Belt, while warmer temps 
and less rain presses into the south and west growing areas. USDA's weekly Crop 
Progress report is expected to show conditions easing slightly lower with 
maturity catching up to the five-year average or better with the warm temps. 
Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 676,824 metric tons (mt). 
Ethanol margins are likely to stay rangebound with strong blender margins 
remaining in place with unleaded softer out of the holiday weekend. Basis will 
be watched to see if strength holds. On the September chart, support is the 
fresh low at $5.82 1/2 with the lower Bollinger Band just above that at $6.09 
1/2 and the 20-day moving average well above the market at $6.95. 

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 56 to 67 cents lower to start the week with weekend 
rains. There is talk of China cancellations that helped spur our Friday washout 
as crush margins continue to struggle with product values sliding further on 
world recession fears. Meal is $6.00 to $7.00 lower with oil 400 to 420 lower. 
Biodiesel margins are very good at the moment, which should bolster crush 
recovery into fall with fresh capacity expected to come online then, although 
last week's EPA ruling will add uncertainty. South America is moving toward 
post-harvest footing at this point. Planting is wrapped up for the full season 
in the U.S. and getting started on double crop with wheat harvest moving 
quickly with moisture needed to boost development. USDA's weekly Crop Progress 
report is expected to show steady to slightly lower ratings with maturity near 
the five-year average. Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 345,987 
mt. Basis is fading a bit at processors and exporters in recent days with the 
daily export sales wire remaining quiet. On the August soybean chart, support 
is the fresh low at $14.50 with lower Bollinger Band at $14.68 with the 20-day 
moving average well above the market at $15.88.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 22 to 31 cents lower with harvest pressure yet to ease 
amid the outside market pain as big Euro contract gains evaporated just before 
the U.S. open Tuesday, keeping pressure rolling forward. Plains weather should 
allow for harvest to continue moving with few areas slowed by rains as it moves 
further north. Harvest expected to be well past halfway this week, while the 
spring wheat areas should show steady to slightly better conditions while 
maturity still lags with the slow planting this year. Weekly export inspections 
were poor at 111,830 mt. The dollar continues to hold in the upper end of the 
range with the strong ruble helping competitiveness as well with Russia 
expected to have near record supplies as other Black Sea supplies diminish 
short term with trade waiting for the next set of import tenders. The KC 
September chart has support at the fresh low of $8.71 scored this Friday with 
the lower Bollinger Band at $8.82 and the 20-day moving average still well 
above the market at $10.68.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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